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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Rob Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder

OF·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
244
H
50
HR
1
AVG
.246
xwOBA
.344
PPG
1.46
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20264194.133.209.241.108.25629.8%6.4%23.4%30170.41—
202577211.266
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

244 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
59
.344
xBA
44
.254
.354
.478
.212
.341
25.6%
11.4%
14.2%
9
4
134
1.74
—
202491308.282.359.469.187.33225.3%9.1%16.2%1121571.73—
202389244.246.365.315.069.34419.3%13.5%5.8%171301.46—
202267177.307.391.497.190.37926.0%8.5%17.5%611071.60—
202151157.245.327.338.093.34325.5%10.8%14.7%21561.10—
20201634.200.273.233.033.26032.4%5.9%26.5%0050.31—
201838102.167.314.274.107.32625.5%17.6%7.9%20310.82—
20175298.170.247.216.046.29217.3%8.2%9.1%04330.63—
201661174.250.333.309.059.30817.2%10.3%6.9%02751.23—
xSLG
12
.382
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
12
87.3
Median EV
28
91.2
90th % EV
11
102.1
Barrel %
7
3.8
Hard-Hit %
12
34.4
Sweet-Spot %
98
44.6
Bat Speed
Avg
68
71.6
Median
64
72.5
90th %
47
76.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
96
18.8
Whiff %
57
20.8
K %
57
19.3
BB %
91
13.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
115
≈ 93th pctl
Chase cost
-11.3r
119 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-8.7r
173 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.1%
1,004 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.00
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
244241+0%14+24%21+27%22+30%20+38%24+13%8+0%7+27%22-33%49-28%64-28%60-16%45+37%19+7%14+31%29-19%26-26%72-32%60-44%45+15%20+0%11+0%18+26%27+4%56+4%48-14%29+0%115+12%17+18%11+0%11+0%9+0%64CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000