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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Rob Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder

OF·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
308
H
77
HR
11
AVG
.282
xwOBA
.332
PPG
1.73
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20264194.133.209.241.108.25629.8%6.4%23.4%30170.41—
202577211.266
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

308 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
46
.332
xBA
48
.248
.354
.478
.212
.341
25.6%
11.4%
14.2%
9
4
134
1.74
—
202491308.282.359.469.187.33225.3%9.1%16.2%1121571.73—
202389244.246.365.315.069.34419.3%13.5%5.8%171301.46—
202267177.307.391.497.190.37926.0%8.5%17.5%611071.60—
202151157.245.327.338.093.34325.5%10.8%14.7%21561.10—
20201634.200.273.233.033.26032.4%5.9%26.5%0050.31—
201838102.167.314.274.107.32625.5%17.6%7.9%20310.82—
20175298.170.247.216.046.29217.3%8.2%9.1%04330.63—
201661174.250.333.309.059.30817.2%10.3%6.9%02751.23—
xSLG
40
.416
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
52
89.6
Median EV
46
92.2
90th % EV
73
106.7
Barrel %
58
9.7
Hard-Hit %
56
43.1
Sweet-Spot %
53
35.9
Bat Speed
Avg
65
71.1
Median
65
72.7
90th %
52
76.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
71
24.7
Whiff %
32
25.5
K %
25
25.3
BB %
54
9.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
111
≈ 87th pctl
Chase cost
-15.8r
186 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.2r
179 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.1%
1,200 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.17
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+17%63+14%7+0%6231+0%12+30%23+21%24+19%32+57%14+25%12+0%6+33%21-5%37-36%56-17%64-9%54+22%27+23%13+25%24+4%49-38%63-31%68-9%47+39%23+13%8+10%10+26%19+9%47+0%38+21%24+25%12+0%10+13%8+17%12+13%1555+0%71CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000