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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #82 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Roki Sasaki
Roki Sasaki · #60
V⁻ —VORP -10V⁺ —
Roki Sasaki

Roki Sasaki

SP·LAD
Compare
Compare
BF
247
K %
24.3%
BB %
8.5%
xwOBA
.321
PTS
109
PPG
9.91
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj221477.044004.354.1822.1%9.3%12.8%————1275.78
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
93
97.2
FB Spin
30
2198
Extension
2026
11
11
58.0
3
3
0
0
4.03
4.57
24.3%
8.5%
15.8%
.321
.276
79.4%
45.1%
109
9.91
202519847.011343.645.2917.0%11.6%5.4%.367.22681.9%39.2%975.11
95
7.14
Results
xwOBA
52
.321
Barrel %
19
10.5
Hard-Hit %
12
45.1
K %
66
24.3
BB %
41
8.5
Chase %
68
32.1
Whiff %
86
27.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
75
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
106
if they swing
Command+
77
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
95
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.3%
24 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.061
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.019 worse than avg · 97 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.043
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.014 worse than avg · 34 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 328 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
41.6%97.02100+15.2+8.76.9917.4%49.5%26.6%25.5%11.5%0.496
SliderSL
30.5%86.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE50°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLFS
Usage42%31%28%
MPH97.086.485.3
RHP Avg95.086.786.7
2066
-2.1
-2.0
6.97
34.1%
48.8%
32.5%
36.6%
33.3%
0.247
Split-FingerFS
27.9%85.3581-3.1+4.07.0538.7%26.0%21.9%27.8%18.8%0.255

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″FS · 25″SL · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 18″FS · 37″SL · 46″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.44′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLFS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.