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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-30
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
-46
if they swing
Command+
37
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
-3
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
65.2%
15 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
-0.034
RV per pitch · league 0.046
-0.080 better than avg · 1 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.025
RV per pitch · league 0.032
-0.006 better than avg · 4 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 23 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
EephusEP
95.7%56.01398+13.9+3.14.560.0%59.1%4.5%0.0%—0.540
OtherFA
4.3%75.61846

2025 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
EPFA
Usage96%4%
MPH56.075.6
LHP Avg——

2025 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTEP · 17″FA · 20″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′EP · 121″FA · 73″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (5.92′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2025 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
EPFA

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.

+10.1
+13.2
5.10
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.333
Rowdy Tellez

Rowdy Tellez

1B·ATL
Compare
Compare
BF
11
K %
0.0%
BB %
0.0%
xwOBA
.519
PTS
-5
PPG
-5.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2025102.0000013.5011.100.0%0.0%0.0%.519.44465.2%40.0%-5-5.00
2025 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

11 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
2024
3
0
2.7
0
0
0
0
6.75
6.48
0.0%
6.7%
-6.7%
.466
.417
75.0%
16.7%
-2
-0.67
2023101.000000.001.1025.0%0.0%25.0%.106.333100.0%0.0%33.00
Extension
0
4.58
Results
xwOBA
0
.519
Barrel %
24
10.0
Hard-Hit %
66
40.0
K %
0
0.0
BB %
100
0.0
Chase %
0
10.0
Whiff %
0
0.0