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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #18 of 41

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Royce Lewis
Royce Lewis · #18
V⁻ -21VORP 0V⁺ 20
Royce Lewis

Royce Lewis

3B·MIN
Compare
Compare
PA
127
H
18
HR
3
AVG
.162
xwOBA
.284
PPG
1.09
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj70303.238.300.420.181.31922.8%7.8%15.1%1261502.14—
202634127.162
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

127 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
6
.284
xBA
3
.205
.262
.270
.108
.284
29.9%
10.2%
19.7%
3
3
37
1.09
—
2025105406.235.282.385.150.29719.7%6.2%13.5%13121911.82—
202486325.233.300.452.219.32122.8%8.6%14.2%1601772.06—
202364239.309.372.548.239.35023.0%8.4%14.6%1562043.19—
20221541.300.317.550.250.31412.2%2.4%9.8%21291.93—
xSLG
6
.318
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
25
87.6
Median EV
92
97.3
90th % EV
31
103.4
Barrel %
62
10.8
Hard-Hit %
40
40.5
Sweet-Spot %
33
33.8
Bat Speed
Avg
66
71.9
Median
58
72.8
90th %
74
78.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
30
32.5
Whiff %
3
33.7
K %
10
29.9
BB %
62
10.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
98
≈ 41th pctl
Chase cost
-4.2r
37 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.9r
39 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.9%
235 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.63
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
112112+50%6-37%83+63%83+50%6-20%10-45%20-27%11-11%933+10%10-21%14-44%18-25%8-14%741+33%94+27%11+33%921133111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 235