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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Royce Lewis

Royce Lewis

3B·MIN
Compare
Compare
PA
239
H
67
HR
15
AVG
.309
xwOBA
.350
PPG
3.19
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202634127.162.262.270.108.28429.9%10.2%19.7%33371.09—
2025105406.235
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

239 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
68
.350
xBA
53
.258
.282
.385
.150
.297
19.7%
6.2%
13.5%
13
12
191
1.82
—
202486325.233.300.452.219.32122.8%8.6%14.2%1601772.06—
202364239.309.372.548.239.35023.0%8.4%14.6%1562043.19—
20221541.300.317.550.250.31412.2%2.4%9.8%21291.93—
xSLG
77
.486
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
61
90.2
Median EV
53
92.5
90th % EV
81
107.4
Barrel %
76
11.7
Hard-Hit %
50
42.0
Sweet-Spot %
37
34.6
Bat Speed
Avg
87
73.8
Median
89
75.0
90th %
86
79.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
42
28.5
Whiff %
40
23.5
K %
30
23.0
BB %
43
8.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
98
≈ 42th pctl
Chase cost
-19.1r
176 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-7.5r
143 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.3%
1,019 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.61
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
15+50%64321+31%13+47%15+5%19+31%16+78%9+71%73+24%17-15%54-38%53-27%56-6%47+50%10+31%13+30%37-15%52-38%69-19%67-19%43+52%21+36%11+10%29+33%52+2%41+34%35+22%23+50%12+0%9+0%9+15%13+20%10+17%6+0%71CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000