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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Royce Lewis

Royce Lewis

3B·MIN
Compare
Compare
PA
325
H
68
HR
16
AVG
.233
xwOBA
.321
PPG
2.06
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202637144.198.289.349.151.30227.8%9.7%18.1%53531.43—
2025105406.235
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

325 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
27
.321
xBA
31
.241
.282
.385
.150
.297
19.7%
6.2%
13.5%
13
12
191
1.82
—
202486325.233.300.452.219.32122.8%8.6%14.2%1601772.06—
202364239.309.372.548.239.35023.0%8.4%14.6%1562043.19—
20221541.300.317.550.250.31412.2%2.4%9.8%21291.93—
xSLG
53
.439
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
11
86.8
Median EV
6
89.0
90th % EV
69
106.2
Barrel %
66
11.2
Hard-Hit %
27
37.7
Sweet-Spot %
73
37.7
Bat Speed
Avg
68
71.3
Median
73
73.1
90th %
67
77.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
17
33.2
Whiff %
33
25.0
K %
38
22.8
BB %
52
8.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
86
≈ 8th pctl
Chase cost
-30.9r
273 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-6.5r
142 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.8%
1,252 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.98
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3+29%7+14%75322+8%12+6%17+32%25+48%21+45%11+29%7+47%17+0%27-27%48-24%51+9%46+62%21+27%15+42%26+18%39-33%73-26%62-8%61+64%28+0%11+11%18+41%37+29%58+30%40+21%24+10%10+14%7+20%15+22%23+42%12+33%6+18%1131CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000