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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #161 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Ryan Feltner
Ryan Feltner · #60
V⁻ —VORP -68V⁺ —
Ryan Feltner

Ryan Feltner

SP·COL
Compare
Compare
BF
151
K %
17.2%
BB %
8.6%
xwOBA
.368
PTS
49
PPG
6.13
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj211577.036005.234.5518.2%9.0%9.2%————743.53
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

151 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
69
94.6
FB Spin
84
2400
2026
8
8
36.3
2
2
0
0
5.20
4.97
17.2%
8.6%
8.6%
.368
.240
62.8%
41.8%
49
6.13
20257735.302004.584.1218.5%8.9%9.6%.285.31871.7%48.0%365.14
20243232172.0410004.293.9319.9%7.5%12.4%.328.30867.5%44.4%2457.66
2023111147.725006.044.6318.9%13.9%5.0%.332.33165.9%43.6%232.09
2022212099.3410005.804.6719.6%8.2%11.4%.344.30264.4%41.6%864.10
2021226.3010011.3710.2118.2%15.2%3.0%.414.33364.8%9.5%-10-5.00
Extension
53
6.54
Results
xwOBA
8
.368
Barrel %
8
11.8
Hard-Hit %
11
45.5
K %
19
17.2
BB %
38
8.6
Chase %
1
22.5
Whiff %
44
21.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 64th pctl
Stuff+
102
if they swing
Command+
93
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
97
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.4%
25 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 70 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.045
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.016 worse than avg · 17 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 267 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
22.1%95.22433+14.2+4.56.574.0%65.9%22.7%33.3%7.1%0.623
SliderSL
21.6%89.82585

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE43°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLSICHSTCU
Usage22%22%20%15%14%8%
MPH95.289.894.685.884.780.4
RHP Avg95.086.794.386.983.380.2
+5.8
-4.7
6.60
21.1%
34.9%
16.3%
25.0%
0.0%
0.407
SinkerSI
20.1%94.62414+7.8+11.66.585.0%60.0%15.0%6.3%11.1%0.436
ChangeupCH
14.6%85.81666+5.9+6.36.7055.6%31.0%41.4%55.0%45.5%0.191
SweeperST
14.1%84.72659+1.9-11.56.607.1%50.0%7.1%7.1%33.3%0.281
CurveballCU
7.5%80.42692-8.9-9.06.5916.7%53.3%20.0%14.3%0.0%0.627

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SL · 20″SI · 19″CH · 20″ST · 22″CU · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 23″SL · 37″SI · 26″CH · 46″ST · 52″CU · 61″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.13′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLSICHSTCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLSICHSTCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLSICHSTCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.