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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #34 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Ryan Mountcastle
Ryan Mountcastle · #34
V⁻ —VORP -6V⁺ —
Ryan Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle

1B·BAL
Compare
Compare
PA
15
H
4
HR
0
AVG
.286
xwOBA
.301
PPG
0.63
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj1980.258.312.419.161.32424.0%6.7%17.3%30371.96—
2026815.286
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

15 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
18
.301
xBA
79
.279
.333
.357
.071
.301
13.3%
6.7%
6.6%
0
0
5
0.63
—
202591357.250.291.367.117.31327.5%4.2%23.3%731151.26—
2024130507.271.311.425.154.33722.5%5.3%17.2%1332331.79—
2023123471.269.332.450.181.35722.7%7.9%14.8%1832762.24—
2022154610.250.308.423.173.36425.2%7.0%18.2%2242951.92—
2021150589.253.311.484.231.32827.3%7.0%20.3%3353332.22—
202036140.333.391.492.159.32721.4%7.9%13.5%50792.19—
xSLG
11
.347
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
56
90.0
Median EV
8
87.9
90th % EV
92
108.8
Barrel %
0
0.0
Hard-Hit %
44
41.7
Sweet-Spot %
26
33.3
Bat Speed
Avg
88
74.0
Median
72
73.8
90th %
80
79.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
1
44.8
Whiff %
98
8.8
K %
87
13.3
BB %
17
6.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
88
≈ 11th pctl
Chase cost
-2.2r
21 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.5r
9 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
55.7%
88 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.04
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1132131323-33%6312235-12%8443+25%8+43%7111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 88