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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Ryan O'Hearn

Ryan O'Hearn

1B / OF·PIT
Compare
Compare
PA
494
H
117
HR
15
AVG
.264
xwOBA
.357
PPG
2.09
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202655222.278.350.460.182.33022.1%9.0%13.1%1011302.36—
2025151547.279
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

494 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
81
.357
xBA
78
.272
.366
.434
.155
.346
19.9%
10.6%
9.3%
17
3
308
2.04
—
2024146494.264.336.427.163.35714.0%9.3%4.7%1533052.09—
2023121369.288.323.478.190.32922.2%4.1%18.1%1452331.93—
202275145.239.292.321.082.33624.1%5.5%18.6%10751.00—
202192255.224.270.367.143.29727.8%5.1%22.7%90991.08—
202042132.195.305.301.106.32728.0%13.6%14.4%20400.95—
2019109370.195.283.369.174.31226.8%10.5%16.3%1401341.23—
201846171.260.351.593.333.34726.3%11.7%14.6%1211202.61—
xSLG
73
.468
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
52
89.6
Median EV
49
92.5
90th % EV
27
103.6
Barrel %
29
6.9
Hard-Hit %
37
40.1
Sweet-Spot %
67
36.9
Bat Speed
Avg
65
71.1
Median
56
71.9
90th %
56
76.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
60
26.2
Whiff %
83
16.1
K %
92
14.0
BB %
58
9.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 37th pctl
Chase cost
-36.5r
347 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-14.6r
253 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.6%
1,936 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.64
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2+0%9+10%10+7%15+14%7+0%93+0%7+35%23-4%28+17%47+21%29+20%25+8%12+52%25+24%37-23%64-28%76-23%48+50%34+50%16+35%26+13%45-29%41-17%58-31%48+57%234+18%17+41%29+11%27+53%15+13%15+29%143+14%74+29%7+17%651CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000