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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #53 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Ryan Weathers
Ryan Weathers · #53
V⁻ —VORP 11V⁺ —
Ryan Weathers

Ryan Weathers

SP·NYY
Compare
Compare
BF
305
K %
26.6%
BB %
6.9%
xwOBA
.323
PTS
130
PPG
10.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj271175.044003.793.7724.5%7.9%16.5%————1475.46
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
72
95.0
FB Spin
63
2321
Extension
2026
13
13
74.3
2
5
0
0
4.36
4.43
26.6%
6.9%
19.7%
.323
.273
74.6%
43.1%
130
10.00
20258838.322003.994.5622.3%7.2%15.1%.310.27574.6%44.8%698.63
2024161686.756003.634.0521.7%6.5%15.2%.319.27675.3%47.6%16310.19
2023161362.328016.506.0016.7%11.3%5.4%.330.31467.1%38.0%140.88
2022328.700007.276.4514.3%19.0%-4.7%.310.33363.4%50.0%41.33
20213220100.347105.565.2618.0%7.5%10.5%.348.29970.7%45.9%1083.38
3
5.77
Results
xwOBA
51
.323
Barrel %
8
11.9
Hard-Hit %
37
41.6
K %
88
26.6
BB %
70
6.9
Chase %
32
29.0
Whiff %
69
24.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
120
≈ 98th pctl
Stuff+
113
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
121
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.1%
26 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.033
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.009 better than avg · 170 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.004
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.025 better than avg · 35 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 512 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
32.9%96.12333+15.2+11.95.8017.7%55.9%28.8%30.8%22.2%0.510
ChangeupCH
22.0%85.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSTSISL
Usage33%22%21%19%6%
MPH96.185.281.794.588.4
LHP Avg93.284.681.093.084.7
1855
+0.0
+14.3
5.88
29.3%
26.6%
20.3%
43.1%
12.8%
0.261
SweeperST
20.9%81.72574+2.2-10.15.7345.0%45.3%42.7%24.4%46.7%0.056
SinkerSI
18.7%94.52258+10.0+19.05.806.7%55.2%28.4%33.3%30.8%0.486
SliderSL
5.6%88.42590+4.0-2.25.6941.7%55.0%40.0%44.4%36.4%0.251

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″ST · 24″SL · 24″CH · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″SI · 29″ST · 61″SL · 44″CH · 50″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.05′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSTSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSTSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSTSISL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.