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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #157 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Ryan Weiss
Ryan Weiss · #60
V⁻ —VORP -33V⁺ —
Ryan Weiss

Ryan Weiss

RP·HOU
Compare
Compare
BF
131
K %
22.9%
BB %
15.3%
xwOBA
.379
PTS
-6
PPG
-0.67
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj15015.011004.124.0323.6%10.1%13.5%————261.72
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

131 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
70
94.7
FB Spin
84
2406
2026
9
2
26.0
0
3
0
0
7.62
7.10
22.9%
15.3%
7.6%
.379
.370
70.8%
33.3%
-6
-0.67
Extension
41
6.41
Results
xwOBA
4
.379
Barrel %
14
11.1
Hard-Hit %
2
49.4
K %
58
22.9
BB %
0
15.3
Chase %
32
28.9
Whiff %
53
22.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
91
≈ 19th pctl
Stuff+
113
if they swing
Command+
84
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
110
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.1%
24 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.045
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.002 worse than avg · 104 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.007 worse than avg · 35 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 336 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
40.7%95.52463+17.1+5.56.4411.3%56.7%22.5%25.0%13.2%0.442
SweeperST
29.5%84.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE42°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTCHSICU
Usage41%29%15%13%2%
MPH95.584.089.093.780.6
RHP Avg95.083.386.994.380.2
2626
-0.9
-15.5
6.33
32.5%
41.4%
29.9%
37.3%
21.1%
0.316
ChangeupCH
15.3%89.01364+0.7+11.86.4350.0%33.3%28.9%20.0%15.4%0.443
SinkerSI
12.9%93.72296+10.4+13.36.3813.3%44.7%18.4%14.3%75.0%0.285
CurveballCU
1.7%80.62385-11.8-8.56.420.0%40.0%0.0%33.3%0.0%0.000

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″ST · 25″CH · 25″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″SI · 30″ST · 54″CH · 41″CU · 61″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.24′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTCHSICU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTCHSICU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTCHSICU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.