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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #360 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Ryan Yarbrough
Ryan Yarbrough · #60
V⁻ —VORP -56V⁺ —
Ryan Yarbrough

Ryan Yarbrough

SP / RP·NYY
Compare
Compare
BF
98
K %
18.4%
BB %
10.2%
xwOBA
.268
PTS
49
PPG
3.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj33033.011054.384.3618.8%7.3%11.5%————611.84
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

98 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
86.1
FB Spin
1
2000
2026
14
0
23.3
0
0
1
0
3.47
3.66
18.4%
10.2%
8.2%
.268
.224
71.4%
39.7%
49
3.50
202520865.031104.294.9820.8%7.2%13.6%.321.25378.9%39.4%1266.30
2024450100.752113.134.5516.3%8.0%8.3%.325.20879.3%41.5%2174.82
2023271194.788214.664.3717.8%3.5%14.3%.322.29972.8%39.9%1555.74
2022231191.348004.044.5617.2%6.2%11.0%.329.29975.9%39.1%1225.30
20213223164.398005.204.3317.9%4.1%13.8%.322.28860.8%36.8%2397.47
2020161170.324003.584.5218.8%5.1%13.7%.307.28382.5%43.3%1106.88
20193315151.3136003.933.3020.7%3.5%17.2%.293.26964.7%44.5%33310.09
2018407152.7167003.834.0220.4%8.0%12.4%.321.28674.1%38.7%3167.90
Extension
30
6.30
Results
xwOBA
92
.268
Barrel %
99
2.9
Hard-Hit %
100
19.1
K %
29
18.4
BB %
17
10.2
Chase %
21
27.9
Whiff %
29
19.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
112
≈ 88th pctl
Stuff+
88
if they swing
Command+
107
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
103
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.0%
19 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.049
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.007 worse than avg · 38 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.025
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.054 better than avg · 9 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 173 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
26.9%87.41925+13.4+13.56.1815.4%56.3%37.5%42.9%25.0%0.141
SweeperST
24.4%72.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE19°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTCHFCSI
Usage27%24%19%15%14%
MPH87.472.077.584.987.0
LHP Avg93.281.084.688.193.0
2247
+8.2
-12.9
6.11
25.0%
44.8%
13.8%
0.0%
11.1%
0.226
ChangeupCH
19.3%77.51927+0.2+17.96.2725.0%43.5%21.7%30.8%0.0%0.339
CutterFC
15.1%84.92072+9.9+2.26.260.0%66.7%44.4%16.7%—0.493
SinkerSI
14.3%87.01875+8.0+17.26.250.0%52.9%23.5%50.0%—0.498

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 18″FF · 18″ST · 21″SI · 18″CH · 21″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 50″FF · 45″ST · 82″SI · 45″CH · 68″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.21′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTCHFCSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTCHFCSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTCHFCSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.