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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #117 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Ryne Nelson
Ryne Nelson · #60
V⁻ —VORP -35V⁺ —
Ryne Nelson

Ryne Nelson

SP / RP·ARI
Compare
Compare
BF
326
K %
17.5%
BB %
6.7%
xwOBA
.359
PTS
89
PPG
6.36
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj171794.044004.364.1619.4%6.9%12.5%————1478.64
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
79
95.5
FB Spin
57
2285
Extension
2026
14
14
76.3
2
5
0
0
5.19
5.52
17.5%
6.7%
10.8%
.359
.243
63.3%
31.4%
89
6.36
20253423156.773123.453.7521.3%6.6%14.7%.309.25674.1%40.0%34310.09
20242926155.7106104.163.6620.0%5.4%14.6%.319.31172.2%42.5%2879.90
20233429160.789015.214.6715.5%7.4%8.1%.351.30268.8%37.5%1785.24
20223318.311001.473.7523.2%8.7%14.5%.248.15690.2%25.5%5016.67
67
6.64
Results
xwOBA
12
.359
Barrel %
15
10.7
Hard-Hit %
23
43.8
K %
20
17.5
BB %
73
6.7
Chase %
82
33.4
Whiff %
6
16.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
118
≈ 96th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
97
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
122
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.3%
22 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.031
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.012 better than avg · 117 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.011 worse than avg · 25 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 412 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
61.6%95.92308+19.9+2.36.6518.6%54.3%22.9%31.3%11.7%0.388
SliderSL
20.5%88.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE55°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCUFC
Usage62%21%12%6%
MPH95.988.079.890.3
RHP Avg95.086.780.289.8
2454
+2.2
-5.0
6.57
31.4%
48.6%
31.4%
33.3%
32.1%
0.235
CurveballCU
12.3%79.82701-9.5-9.26.5125.0%31.0%21.4%17.2%33.3%0.161
CutterFC
5.6%90.32288+7.3-3.96.6128.6%42.1%26.3%27.3%50.0%0.334

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″FC · 21″SL · 25″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 22″FC · 30″SL · 39″CU · 60″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.41′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCUFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCUFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCUFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.