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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #43 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick · #43
V⁻ 2VORP 20V⁺ 58
Sal Frelick

Sal Frelick

OF·MIL
Compare
Compare
PA
228
H
44
HR
3
AVG
.222
xwOBA
.292
PPG
1.87
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj79342.259.326.365.106.31213.3%8.5%4.7%5101782.25—
202661228.222
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
9
.292
xBA
26
.239
xSLG
.300
.308
.086
.292
10.5%
9.2%
1.3%
3
5
114
1.87
—
2025151594.288.354.405.117.30213.5%7.9%5.6%12203572.36—
2024150524.259.320.335.076.28614.9%7.4%7.5%2192591.73—
202364223.246.345.351.105.29816.6%12.6%4.0%381282.00—
5
.317
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
7
85.4
Median EV
14
88.8
90th % EV
34
103.6
Barrel %
4
2.3
Hard-Hit %
4
27.7
Sweet-Spot %
2
27.1
Bat Speed
Avg
7
66.3
Median
10
68.0
90th %
13
73.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
88
22.4
Whiff %
97
9.1
K %
94
10.5
BB %
46
9.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 61th pctl
Chase cost
-5.2r
48 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.9r
53 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.1%
337 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.41
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
45241251+25%12+0%6+33%6+0%712-4%24-24%17-44%16+15%1354+33%12-44%16-27%26-26%31-33%15+13%8345+19%16+50%14+57%72514CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 337