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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #108 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara · #60
V⁻ —VORP -26V⁺ —
Sandy Alcantara

Sandy Alcantara

SP·MIA
Compare
Compare
BF
405
K %
17.5%
BB %
5.7%
xwOBA
.309
PTS
167
PPG
11.13
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020121.067004.253.9118.8%7.0%11.8%————1859.23
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
87
96.3
FB Spin
48
2268
Extension
2026
15
15
97.3
6
4
0
0
4.25
4.14
17.5%
5.7%
11.8%
.309
.288
70.2%
45.1%
167
11.13
20253131174.71112005.364.2519.1%7.7%11.4%.334.27861.9%46.6%2317.45
20232929187.7712004.083.7819.8%6.3%13.5%.320.28769.6%51.9%31810.97
20223433233.7149012.272.9823.3%5.6%17.7%.271.25879.0%54.2%62818.47
20213535213.31015003.213.4023.9%6.0%17.9%.290.27273.1%54.0%44712.77
20209954.743003.293.8722.4%8.6%13.8%.309.27067.1%50.4%11512.78
20193332198.3614003.864.4218.0%9.7%8.3%.325.27273.9%45.5%2868.67
20186634.023003.444.6920.3%15.5%4.8%.312.25080.8%50.5%538.83
2017909.300003.865.3525.6%15.4%10.2%.405.33375.8%26.1%171.89
13
6.04
Results
xwOBA
65
.309
Barrel %
76
6.6
Hard-Hit %
68
37.5
K %
20
17.5
BB %
88
5.7
Chase %
54
31.2
Whiff %
17
18.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
117
≈ 95th pctl
Stuff+
96
if they swing
Command+
103
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
104
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.3%
37 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.035
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.008 better than avg · 102 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.022
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.007 better than avg · 28 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 445 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
ChangeupCH
25.5%90.62114+3.9+18.46.1442.9%35.9%31.5%42.4%38.5%0.196
4-Seam FastballFF
21.6%97.22255

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE34°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CHFFSISLSTFC
Usage25%22%21%15%8%8%
MPH90.697.297.184.984.090.1
RHP Avg86.995.094.386.783.389.8
+13.3
+14.3
6.05
11.6%
67.9%
26.9%
20.0%
20.0%
0.306
SinkerSI
21.3%97.12298+9.6+17.96.049.3%64.9%27.3%33.3%33.3%0.271
SliderSL
15.2%84.92392+1.1-4.16.0540.9%47.3%38.2%27.6%33.3%0.113
SweeperST
8.3%84.02408+1.5-10.26.0038.5%40.0%23.3%11.1%33.3%0.282
CutterFC
8.0%90.12196+6.3-1.06.1215.4%55.2%27.6%23.1%0.0%0.156

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 20″FC · 23″ST · 23″SL · 22″CH · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 20″SI · 20″FC · 37″ST · 52″SL · 44″CH · 35″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.18′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CHFFSISLSTFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHFFSISLSTFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CHFFSISLSTFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.