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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #99 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Sean Burke
Sean Burke · #60
V⁻ —VORP -21V⁺ —
Sean Burke

Sean Burke

SP·CHW
Compare
Compare
BF
292
K %
22.9%
BB %
7.9%
xwOBA
.305
PTS
134
PPG
10.31
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181899.056004.554.4821.1%9.6%11.5%————1478.16
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
57
94.1
FB Spin
95
2510
Extension
2026
13
10
69.7
3
3
0
0
3.88
3.69
22.9%
7.9%
15.0%
.305
.275
72.5%
36.7%
134
10.31
20252923137.7411004.455.0022.2%10.5%11.7%.345.29473.1%36.1%1735.97
20244319.020001.423.2628.9%9.2%19.7%.313.22292.6%34.0%6416.00
88
6.85
Results
xwOBA
73
.305
Barrel %
77
6.6
Hard-Hit %
77
36.2
K %
56
22.9
BB %
51
7.9
Chase %
50
30.8
Whiff %
28
19.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
109
≈ 82th pctl
Stuff+
103
if they swing
Command+
102
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.8%
38 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 156 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.013
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.016 better than avg · 22 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 433 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
39.4%94.02541+19.1+4.26.9218.5%50.7%23.2%38.6%17.2%0.326
Knuckle CurveKC
20.8%79.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE42°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFKCSLSICH
Usage39%21%20%14%6%
MPH94.079.587.094.486.0
RHP Avg95.083.086.794.386.9
2410
-13.3
-4.5
6.86
4.2%
45.3%
26.7%
22.0%
12.1%
0.323
SliderSL
20.3%87.02504+5.9-4.96.8524.2%53.4%35.6%35.3%10.5%0.358
SinkerSI
13.6%94.42367+15.3+13.06.953.8%51.0%10.2%25.0%0.0%0.306
ChangeupCH
5.8%86.01831+10.6+13.17.040.0%47.6%9.5%18.2%0.0%0.529

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″CH · 23″SL · 26″KC · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 26″SI · 26″CH · 47″SL · 43″KC · 63″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.59′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFKCSLSICH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFKCSLSICH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFKCSLSICH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.