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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #215 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Sean Manaea
Sean Manaea · #60
V⁻ —VORP -40V⁺ —
Sean Manaea

Sean Manaea

SP / RP·NYM
Compare
Compare
BF
193
K %
23.3%
BB %
8.8%
xwOBA
.320
PTS
64
PPG
4.57
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj211288.034004.133.9523.7%8.2%15.5%————1577.46
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
3
89.5
FB Spin
2
2042
Extension
2026
14
0
43.0
1
1
0
0
5.02
3.98
23.3%
8.8%
14.5%
.320
.331
69.5%
37.3%
64
4.57
2025151260.724005.644.3528.5%4.6%23.9%.313.31468.5%37.9%976.47
20243737205.7148003.593.7724.9%8.5%16.4%.305.25273.4%37.8%46612.59
20233811123.786134.293.8025.6%8.4%17.2%.313.28365.0%42.4%2556.71
20223431173.3811004.934.3923.2%7.4%15.8%.318.28966.8%38.7%2627.71
20213434188.01211004.023.6125.7%5.4%20.3%.312.32075.9%42.7%37711.09
2020131363.345004.833.8620.3%3.6%16.7%.306.30259.0%50.6%937.15
20196631.741002.274.2127.3%6.4%20.9%.281.203101.9%41.4%10217.00
20182727160.7129003.594.2016.5%4.9%11.6%.330.24775.2%46.0%31911.81
20173232170.71210004.323.9820.2%7.9%12.3%.329.31068.4%44.2%2708.44
85
6.83
Results
xwOBA
56
.320
Barrel %
42
8.7
Hard-Hit %
69
37.3
K %
61
23.3
BB %
37
8.8
Chase %
28
28.3
Whiff %
50
21.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
92
≈ 20th pctl
Stuff+
89
if they swing
Command+
92
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
85
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
14.4%
41 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.002 worse than avg · 86 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.008 worse than avg · 23 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 285 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
40.6%89.52028+10.9+14.06.9312.3%58.6%27.6%27.1%14.6%0.362
SweeperST
34.6%74.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE17°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTSICHFC
Usage41%35%15%8%2%
MPH89.574.588.882.184.0
LHP Avg93.281.093.084.688.1
2205
+3.3
-12.7
6.67
30.0%
43.4%
26.3%
33.9%
17.1%
0.277
SinkerSI
15.0%88.81994+4.9+20.36.930.0%48.8%23.3%18.2%0.0%0.474
ChangeupCH
8.0%82.11488+1.6+15.66.8120.0%26.1%8.7%29.4%0.0%0.516
CutterFC
1.7%84.02121+7.6-0.26.760.0%20.0%20.0%25.0%0.0%0.145

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″FC · 23″SI · 20″ST · 24″CH · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 36″FC · 52″SI · 37″ST · 75″CH · 54″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.11′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTSICHFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.