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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #206 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Sean Newcomb
Sean Newcomb · #60
V⁻ —VORP -39V⁺ —
Sean Newcomb

Sean Newcomb

SP / RP·CHW
Compare
Compare
BF
157
K %
22.9%
BB %
6.4%
xwOBA
.295
PTS
104
PPG
4.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj41041.011183.703.6522.7%9.4%13.3%————962.35
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

157 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
50
93.7
FB Spin
53
2276
2026
26
0
39.3
0
1
1
5
2.29
2.74
22.9%
6.4%
16.5%
.295
.276
78.0%
53.8%
104
4.00
202549697.025242.602.9523.2%7.9%15.3%.310.34276.4%47.5%2034.14
20248011.010016.557.8315.2%17.4%-2.2%.376.22674.3%51.7%131.63
20237215.011003.003.9027.9%14.8%13.1%.310.21979.5%42.4%355.00
202225133.331038.376.1620.7%14.1%6.6%.383.32659.1%34.5%291.16
202136137.720124.063.3128.5%17.9%10.6%.329.34874.7%38.5%872.42
20204413.7020011.207.4214.3%8.6%5.7%.388.34051.3%37.3%-19-4.75
201961681.0831173.224.2022.1%9.9%12.2%.307.25878.7%50.5%2253.69
20183432173.3129003.894.1723.0%11.6%11.4%.298.27275.0%44.1%3229.47
20171919100.049004.324.1323.7%12.5%11.2%.337.32775.2%46.0%1306.84
Extension
3
5.68
Results
xwOBA
79
.295
Barrel %
97
3.8
Hard-Hit %
80
35.8
K %
58
22.9
BB %
79
6.4
Chase %
42
29.8
Whiff %
45
21.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
120
≈ 97th pctl
Stuff+
94
if they swing
Command+
112
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.8%
21 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.031
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.011 better than avg · 65 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.008 worse than avg · 15 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 239 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
37.8%92.82240+3.8+17.15.6511.4%55.3%30.3%35.3%20.0%0.333
SlurveSV
31.8%81.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE25°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SISVFFCHFCCU
Usage38%32%19%7%3%0%
MPH92.881.994.186.390.878.7
LHP Avg93.0—93.284.688.179.0
2801
-4.9
-19.4
5.51
16.7%
50.0%
26.6%
28.1%
9.5%
0.292
4-Seam FastballFF
19.4%94.12275+15.4+9.65.6636.8%59.0%35.9%18.8%47.1%0.125
ChangeupCH
7.0%86.31528+2.8+13.75.740.0%50.0%7.1%42.9%0.0%0.296
CutterFC
3.5%90.82486+10.9+1.55.630.0%14.3%0.0%33.3%0.0%0.269
CurveballCU
0.5%78.72957-15.4-13.05.60—0.0%0.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″FC · 22″SI · 22″SV · 25″CU · 24″CH · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 26″FC · 35″SI · 31″SV · 57″CU · 64″CH · 46″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.40′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SISVFFCHFCCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SISVFFCHFCCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SISVFFCHFCCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.