Flanker the ClankerFlanker
Rankings
Leaderboards
  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
StreamersSign inConnect league →
Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #121 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo · #60
V⁻ —VORP -37V⁺ —
Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo

SP·KCR
Compare
Compare
BF
335
K %
19.7%
BB %
7.5%
xwOBA
.355
PTS
119
PPG
8.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919109.066004.484.2419.2%7.7%11.5%————1628.54
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
11
91.0
FB Spin
64
2322
Extension
2026
14
14
79.3
2
4
0
0
3.86
3.57
19.7%
7.5%
12.2%
.355
.319
72.3%
37.6%
119
8.50
20252727150.787004.245.0420.4%9.0%11.4%.350.26478.2%39.3%2519.30
20243635217.0169012.993.2421.6%5.7%15.9%.305.27675.9%44.8%50013.89
20232828157.398003.603.5723.2%6.0%17.2%.323.30575.9%45.4%30811.00
202268071.0324183.303.5125.3%6.6%18.7%.294.28879.0%46.2%2163.18
202146046.3431143.503.7028.2%9.7%18.5%.319.30781.7%41.7%1362.96
202017737.734305.024.2729.4%6.3%23.1%.333.33773.5%50.5%794.65
201963082.0746222.742.5833.1%5.1%28.0%.245.26773.7%43.9%3165.02
2018555105.3443112.563.0425.1%6.8%18.3%.279.26776.9%47.3%2895.25
20172019105.776004.854.1719.5%5.7%13.8%.327.32669.5%42.6%1497.45
6
5.84
Results
xwOBA
15
.355
Barrel %
13
11.2
Hard-Hit %
35
42.1
K %
35
19.7
BB %
60
7.5
Chase %
9
26.0
Whiff %
8
16.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
112
≈ 89th pctl
Stuff+
90
if they swing
Command+
110
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
96
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
14.8%
66 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.033
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.009 better than avg · 137 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.015
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.014 better than avg · 20 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 445 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
20.3%91.62347+8.3+16.35.9911.4%58.1%25.7%25.8%6.3%0.323
4-Seam FastballFF
19.2%91.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE30°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIFFCUFCSLCHSTCSSV
Usage20%19%16%12%12%8%7%3%2%
MPH91.691.776.689.984.185.878.471.077.6
RHP Avg94.395.080.289.886.786.983.3——
2288
+15.9
+8.5
5.95
16.1%
55.7%
28.6%
25.8%
20.0%
0.427
CurveballCU
15.9%76.63184-13.8-15.25.5723.3%44.8%31.0%43.8%28.6%0.176
CutterFC
12.4%89.92389+12.5+0.65.8933.3%68.9%33.3%35.7%27.8%0.343
SliderSL
11.8%84.12614+1.5-5.35.7711.1%55.8%23.3%15.8%15.4%0.250
ChangeupCH
8.2%85.81679+4.4+17.05.880.0%33.3%10.0%15.0%0.0%0.356
SweeperST
7.1%78.42797+1.1-14.35.6817.6%53.8%23.1%50.0%0.0%0.438
Slow CurveCS
2.7%71.02762-5.8-16.45.7033.3%30.0%20.0%28.6%0.0%0.358
SlurveSV
2.2%77.62935-5.8-16.25.6950.0%50.0%37.5%25.0%100.0%0.009

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″FC · 18″CS · 19″ST · 21″SI · 18″SV · 22″CH · 21″SL · 23″CU · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 34″FC · 37″CS · 86″ST · 65″SI · 34″SV · 68″CH · 50″SL · 51″CU · 71″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.30′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIFFCUFCSLCHSTCSSV-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIFFCUFCSLCHSTCSSV-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIFFCUFCSLCHSTCSSV

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.