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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #116 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Shane Baz
Shane Baz · #60
V⁻ —VORP -31V⁺ —
Shane Baz

Shane Baz

SP·BAL
Compare
Compare
BF
331
K %
19.9%
BB %
9.1%
xwOBA
.334
PTS
106
PPG
8.15
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919100.066004.294.1122.2%8.6%13.6%————1698.90
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
57
94.1
FB Spin
80
2377
Extension
2026
13
13
77.0
3
6
0
0
4.09
3.98
19.9%
9.1%
10.8%
.334
.302
70.2%
37.3%
106
8.15
20253131166.31012004.874.3324.7%9.0%15.7%.306.30371.9%47.0%2638.48
2024141479.343003.064.0121.6%8.5%13.1%.300.22979.6%39.3%17412.43
20226627.012005.004.4025.6%7.7%17.9%.317.30673.3%44.2%406.67
20214415.720003.454.6336.7%6.1%30.6%.248.23596.2%39.3%4912.25
51
6.53
Results
xwOBA
32
.334
Barrel %
38
9.0
Hard-Hit %
46
40.8
K %
37
19.9
BB %
32
9.1
Chase %
44
30.3
Whiff %
16
18.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
101
≈ 52th pctl
Stuff+
109
if they swing
Command+
93
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
101
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.6%
52 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.003 better than avg · 134 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.015
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.014 better than avg · 40 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 447 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
35.6%96.72422+16.4+8.96.5418.0%53.4%30.1%19.4%10.7%0.407
Knuckle CurveKC
31.3%85.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE37°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFKCFCCHSI
Usage36%31%23%10%0%
MPH96.785.990.489.596.2
RHP Avg95.083.089.886.994.3
2683
-10.6
-5.3
6.46
26.7%
44.4%
25.6%
32.3%
19.6%
0.277
CutterFC
23.0%90.42357+6.3-3.46.4920.0%54.7%25.6%43.6%28.6%0.264
ChangeupCH
9.9%89.51880+10.0+13.16.646.7%40.5%13.5%22.7%0.0%0.593
SinkerSI
0.3%96.22386+12.0+10.76.50—0.0%100.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″SI · 18″FC · 20″CH · 20″KC · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″SI · 25″FC · 39″CH · 41″KC · 49″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.28′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFKCFCCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFKCFCCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFKCFCCHSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.