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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #269 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Shane Drohan
Shane Drohan · #60
V⁻ —VORP -47V⁺ —
Shane Drohan

Shane Drohan

SP / RP·MIL
Compare
Compare
BF
154
K %
24.0%
BB %
7.1%
xwOBA
.276
PTS
101
PPG
7.77
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj40249.033073.943.9223.5%9.6%13.8%————1042.59
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

154 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
52
93.8
FB Spin
89
2444
2026
13
3
37.7
3
1
1
2
3.11
2.70
24.0%
7.1%
16.9%
.276
.279
66.3%
47.2%
101
7.77
Extension
20
6.14
Results
xwOBA
89
.276
Barrel %
32
9.4
Hard-Hit %
53
39.6
K %
66
24.0
BB %
69
7.1
Chase %
78
32.9
Whiff %
74
24.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
107
≈ 75th pctl
Stuff+
110
if they swing
Command+
105
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
142
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
3.2%
2 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.063
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.020 worse than avg · 12 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.007
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.036 better than avg · 11 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 63 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
44.4%93.42368+16.4+13.26.2225.0%39.3%14.3%11.8%16.7%0.497
CutterFC
30.2%88.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFCCHSLCUSI
Usage44%30%8%8%6%3%
MPH93.488.483.382.277.492.7
LHP Avg93.288.184.684.779.093.0
2543
+13.2
+1.2
6.17
11.1%
63.2%
26.3%
28.6%
100.0%
0.244
ChangeupCH
7.9%83.31590+5.1+14.96.08—40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—
SliderSL
7.9%82.22662-1.8-4.26.080.0%20.0%20.0%25.0%0.0%0.404
CurveballCU
6.3%77.42704-9.4-11.66.120.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—
SinkerSI
3.2%92.72368+9.1+16.76.250.0%100.0%50.0%——0.492

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″FC · 19″SI · 20″CH · 20″SL · 24″CU · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 23″FC · 35″SI · 25″CH · 49″SL · 45″CU · 61″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.21′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFCCHSLCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFCCHSLCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFCCHSLCUSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.