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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Shane Smith

Shane Smith

SP·CHW
Compare
Compare
BF
49
K %
22.4%
BB %
18.4%
xwOBA
.340
PTS
-15
PPG
-5.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj8841.022004.274.1521.7%9.6%12.1%————688.49
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

49 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
79
95.6
FB Spin
31
2200
2026
3
3
8.3
0
2
0
0
10.80
5.62
22.4%
18.4%
4.0%
.340
.407
48.5%
44.4%
-15
-5.00
20253029146.778003.804.0823.5%9.4%14.1%.311.26071.9%41.1%2819.37
Extension
83
6.79
Results
xwOBA
26
.340
Barrel %
100
0.0
Hard-Hit %
88
33.3
K %
52
22.4
BB %
0
18.4
Chase %
46
30.4
Whiff %
65
24.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
82
≈ 4th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
81
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.1%
33 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.050
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.008 worse than avg · 94 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.010 worse than avg · 30 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 298 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
32.9%95.32234+16.1+7.56.8226.9%41.9%25.7%16.3%17.9%0.304
CurveballCU
23.6%82.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCUCHSISL
Usage33%24%18%14%11%
MPH95.382.490.396.490.5
RHP Avg95.080.286.994.386.7
2123
-11.6
-3.9
6.69
38.5%
49.1%
39.6%
40.7%
15.0%
0.355
ChangeupCH
18.2%90.31594-0.8+15.46.8328.6%31.7%26.8%46.4%13.3%0.267
SinkerSI
14.2%96.42123+10.5+17.06.880.0%50.0%31.3%25.0%16.7%0.494
SliderSL
11.1%90.52134+4.4-3.16.690.0%56.0%16.0%27.3%0.0%0.295

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 18″SL · 24″CH · 25″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″SI · 24″SL · 37″CH · 38″CU · 57″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.24′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCUCHSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCUCHSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCUCHSISL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.