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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100
Shaun Anderson

Shaun Anderson

SP / RP·LAA
Compare
Compare
BF
73
K %
16.4%
BB %
11.0%
xwOBA
.369
PTS
20
PPG
2.22
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj808.001005.344.2816.7%7.3%9.4%————40.50
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

73 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
44
93.3
FB Spin
93
2498
2026
9
0
16.7
1
0
0
0
5.94
5.62
16.4%
11.0%
5.4%
.369
.286
59.6%
48.1%
20
2.22
20257011.3100110.328.8419.6%5.4%14.2%.377.38968.5%33.3%30.43
20246216.302008.274.6311.8%1.2%10.6%.388.44353.5%37.0%-16-2.67
2022429.001007.005.540.0%0.0%0.0%.386.30862.5%42.9%20.50
202116023.300008.495.5015.3%9.7%5.6%.347.36845.0%41.8%-3-0.19
202019016.300023.315.5526.5%17.6%8.9%.309.21690.9%37.8%371.95
2019291799.036215.364.5716.4%8.9%7.5%.364.32167.7%43.2%973.34
Extension
74
6.68
Results
xwOBA
7
.369
Barrel %
60
7.7
Hard-Hit %
76
36.5
K %
14
16.4
BB %
13
11.0
Chase %
11
26.5
Whiff %
67
24.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
116
≈ 94th pctl
Stuff+
97
if they swing
Command+
117
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
103
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.1%
29 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.034
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.008 better than avg · 66 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.003
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.032 better than avg · 19 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 261 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
29.3%93.12507+14.8+1.86.7526.1%41.0%24.6%22.2%16.7%0.255
ChangeupCH
27.9%87.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE45°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLSTSI
Usage29%28%24%12%8%
MPH93.187.089.281.894.1
RHP Avg95.086.986.783.394.3
1537
+4.8
+13.0
6.73
29.6%
43.1%
27.6%
36.4%
8.3%
0.350
SliderSL
23.6%89.22751+4.5-5.76.6433.3%65.3%32.7%23.5%44.4%0.446
SweeperST
11.5%81.82882-3.7-16.86.5225.0%33.3%20.8%31.3%12.5%0.334
SinkerSI
7.7%94.12418+12.8+10.16.790.0%37.5%25.0%30.0%0.0%0.351

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″ST · 23″SL · 24″SI · 22″CH · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″ST · 59″SL · 39″SI · 29″CH · 47″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.41′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLSTSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLSTSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLSTSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.