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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP·LAD
Compare
Compare
PA
599
H
151
HR
44
AVG
.304
xwOBA
.447
PPG
3.59
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202665284.302.421.522.220.42022.5%15.1%7.4%1161953.00—
2025179717.280
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
98
.447
xBA
91
.289
xSLG
.391
.619
.339
.435
25.9%
14.9%
11.0%
54
21
644
3.60
—
2024179731.310.393.646.336.45222.2%11.1%11.1%54597063.94—
2023139599.304.415.654.350.44723.9%15.2%8.7%44204993.59—
2022170666.273.357.519.246.39624.2%10.8%13.4%34114492.64—
2021164640.257.373.591.334.42429.5%15.0%14.5%46274682.85—
202047175.190.291.366.176.33128.6%12.6%16.0%77791.68—
2019106425.286.346.505.219.35325.9%7.8%18.1%18122442.30—
2018116366.285.362.564.279.38627.9%10.1%17.8%22102522.17—
98
.645
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
98
94.4
Median EV
98
97.0
90th % EV
98
110.9
Barrel %
99
19.6
Hard-Hit %
95
54.1
Sweet-Spot %
53
36.7
Bat Speed
Avg
99
75.5
Median
97
77.1
90th %
98
82.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
37
29.7
Whiff %
12
29.0
K %
24
23.9
BB %
97
15.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
89
≈ 14th pctl
Chase cost
-54.1r
481 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-14.2r
249 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.2%
2,328 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.93
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
4+22%9+9%11+13%155+25%84+18%22+38%32+31%45+25%40+13%24+17%18+10%10+35%37-4%47-26%57-35%66-17%42+42%26+38%13+46%26+25%28-23%47-13%47-9%33+68%28+71%7+20%10+37%19+28%18+41%17+64%11+90%1044+13%8+38%8424CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000