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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. DH peers

Rank #1 of 9

Each bar is one DH, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100+200+300Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani · #1
V⁻ 132VORP 218V⁺ 309
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP·LAD
Compare
Compare
PA
284
H
70
HR
11
AVG
.302
xwOBA
.420
PPG
3.00
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj100431.280.387.578.298.41823.6%14.4%9.3%28153313.31—
202665284.302
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
96
.420
xBA
91
.294
xSLG
.421
.522
.220
.420
22.5%
15.1%
7.4%
11
6
195
3.00
—
2025179717.280.391.619.339.43525.9%14.9%11.0%54216443.60—
2024179731.310.393.646.336.45222.2%11.1%11.1%54597063.94—
2023139599.304.415.654.350.44723.9%15.2%8.7%44204993.59—
2022170666.273.357.519.246.39624.2%10.8%13.4%34114492.64—
2021164640.257.373.591.334.42429.5%15.0%14.5%46274682.85—
202047175.190.291.366.176.33128.6%12.6%16.0%77791.68—
2019106425.286.346.505.219.35325.9%7.8%18.1%18122442.30—
2018116366.285.362.564.279.38627.9%10.1%17.8%22102522.17—
93
.538
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
92
93.5
Median EV
81
95.4
90th % EV
87
108.3
Barrel %
89
15.2
Hard-Hit %
91
52.0
Sweet-Spot %
93
43.3
Bat Speed
Avg
78
72.9
Median
81
74.6
90th %
83
79.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
51
29.3
Whiff %
34
24.6
K %
36
22.5
BB %
92
15.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
87
≈ 10th pctl
Chase cost
-7.6r
73 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.6r
54 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.8%
366 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.07
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
212413+38%8+11%9+0%11+20%10+0%63+50%10-11%18-36%25-44%25-29%17+27%112+38%8+38%16-39%18-41%17-5%19+50%854+71%7+33%9+50%10+64%11+71%7123451CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 366