Flanker the ClankerFlanker
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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP·LAD
Compare
Compare
BF
233
K %
28.8%
BB %
7.7%
xwOBA
.244
PTS
212
PPG
21.20
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2026101061.062000.742.4128.8%7.7%21.1%.244.19791.5%52.8%21221.20
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
94
97.5
FB Spin
91
2471
Extension
2025
18
18
67.3
3
2
0
0
3.34
2.15
33.2%
4.3%
28.9%
.254
.321
72.7%
41.9%
175
9.72
20232323132.0105003.143.8431.3%10.3%21.0%.302.23980.3%45.8%36115.70
20223030171.7169002.412.3833.1%6.7%26.4%.258.29181.6%41.9%51017.00
20212626137.7104003.533.7529.3%8.3%21.0%.286.26578.0%46.4%34413.23
2020221.7010037.8013.9018.8%50.0%-31.2%.477.60036.4%40.0%-22-11.00
2018101051.742003.313.5129.9%10.4%19.5%.285.26979.8%40.0%13013.00
61
6.58
Results
xwOBA
97
.244
Barrel %
97
3.5
Hard-Hit %
68
37.5
K %
93
28.8
BB %
57
7.7
Chase %
44
30.3
Whiff %
94
29.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
110
≈ 83th pctl
Stuff+
113
if they swing
Command+
108
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
111
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.8%
21 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.030
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.013 better than avg · 111 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.027
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.002 better than avg · 28 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 364 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
42.1%97.62469+14.3+4.76.6420.0%53.0%25.6%36.4%21.9%0.251
SweeperST
19.1%84.8

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE36°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTCUFSSISLFC
Usage42%19%17%13%5%3%1%
MPH97.684.874.988.195.787.593.1
RHP Avg95.083.380.286.794.386.789.8
2681
+3.8
-14.7
6.50
33.3%
47.2%
30.2%
32.1%
18.8%
0.241
CurveballCU
16.9%74.92635-15.1-13.36.4040.0%34.0%40.4%22.6%28.6%0.186
Split-FingerFS
12.6%88.11534+2.4+13.56.6640.0%25.7%25.7%46.2%28.6%0.228
SinkerSI
5.4%95.72196+6.7+15.36.6220.0%26.7%13.3%18.2%—0.239
SliderSL
2.9%87.52610-1.3-3.96.5214.3%87.5%12.5%0.0%0.0%0.650
CutterFC
1.1%93.12454+9.6-0.66.600.0%100.0%0.0%——0.010

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 18″FF · 20″ST · 23″SI · 21″FS · 22″SL · 24″CU · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 32″FF · 20″ST · 51″SI · 24″FS · 41″SL · 43″CU · 77″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.25′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTCUFSSISLFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTCUFSSISLFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTCUFSSISLFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.