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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Simeon Woods Richardson

Simeon Woods Richardson

SP·MIN
Compare
Compare
BF
242
K %
12.0%
BB %
10.3%
xwOBA
.364
PTS
-24
PPG
-1.85
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj11115.011004.764.2919.2%8.8%10.4%————211.89
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
34
92.7
FB Spin
34
2211
Extension
2026
13
10
51.7
0
7
0
0
7.14
5.81
12.0%
10.3%
1.7%
.364
.326
58.5%
40.2%
-24
-1.85
20252422115.775004.364.5522.7%9.7%13.0%.305.27774.4%33.3%2028.42
20242828133.755004.174.0520.5%8.4%12.1%.316.28373.6%36.2%2217.89
2023104.700009.645.6720.8%12.5%8.3%.376.40058.1%43.8%-1-1.00
2022217.001102.574.3915.0%10.0%5.0%.437.15865.2%20.0%168.00
77
6.71
Results
xwOBA
8
.364
Barrel %
52
8.2
Hard-Hit %
12
45.1
K %
1
12.0
BB %
16
10.3
Chase %
0
21.7
Whiff %
6
16.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 66th pctl
Stuff+
101
if they swing
Command+
105
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
95
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.6%
44 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.031
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.011 better than avg · 105 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.016 worse than avg · 40 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 414 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
44.7%92.72185+18.1+6.26.729.1%59.5%23.0%13.3%14.3%0.282
Split-FingerFS
26.3%86.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE47°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFSSLCU
Usage45%26%25%4%
MPH92.786.985.877.1
RHP Avg95.086.786.780.2
1101
+7.0
+11.4
6.84
14.3%
35.6%
14.9%
28.6%
8.3%
0.402
SliderSL
25.1%85.82206+5.6-3.56.5715.2%48.2%27.7%23.3%20.0%0.365
CurveballCU
3.9%77.12592-13.4-6.56.530.0%53.8%23.1%0.0%—0.717

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 21″CU · 24″SL · 25″FS · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″CU · 70″SL · 46″FS · 46″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.25′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFSSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFSSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFSSLCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.