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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #124 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Slade Cecconi
Slade Cecconi · #60
V⁻ —VORP -39V⁺ —
Slade Cecconi

Slade Cecconi

SP·CLE
Compare
Compare
BF
294
K %
18.4%
BB %
7.1%
xwOBA
.331
PTS
86
PPG
6.14
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj171795.056004.474.2819.2%6.3%12.9%————1418.32
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
19
91.4
FB Spin
57
2284
Extension
2026
14
14
72.7
3
5
0
0
4.83
4.28
18.4%
7.1%
11.3%
.331
.329
71.3%
44.7%
86
6.14
20252424134.377004.294.5620.0%5.9%14.1%.346.26974.2%41.4%2279.46
2024201377.027006.664.9618.9%5.0%13.9%.332.32161.8%33.6%472.35
20239429.001004.034.0718.0%3.6%14.4%.335.29174.8%38.8%444.89
53
6.54
Results
xwOBA
39
.331
Barrel %
58
7.9
Hard-Hit %
87
34.0
K %
28
18.4
BB %
70
7.1
Chase %
21
27.8
Whiff %
14
18.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
95
≈ 30th pctl
Stuff+
101
if they swing
Command+
102
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
92
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.1%
41 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 122 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.011 worse than avg · 28 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 406 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
38.0%92.82356+16.8+11.26.5322.7%55.6%32.3%28.8%25.8%0.412
CutterFC
24.9%86.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE41°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFCCUSISTSL
Usage38%25%18%11%7%1%
MPH92.886.973.892.881.185.7
RHP Avg95.089.880.294.383.386.7
2288
+4.7
-2.4
6.48
12.8%
50.6%
19.5%
18.6%
14.3%
0.261
CurveballCU
18.0%73.82300-14.4-9.76.4832.0%30.2%23.8%29.5%19.4%0.383
SinkerSI
10.6%92.82221+10.2+16.56.645.0%43.2%16.2%47.6%0.0%0.365
SweeperST
7.4%81.12429+0.9-13.36.5714.3%26.9%7.7%10.5%0.0%0.165
SliderSL
1.1%85.72407+0.8-4.16.4033.3%25.0%25.0%66.7%50.0%0.269

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 19″FC · 21″ST · 24″SL · 26″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″SI · 30″FC · 41″ST · 59″SL · 50″CU · 74″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.46′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFCCUSISTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFCCUSISTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFCCUSISTSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.