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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #51 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray · #51
V⁻ —VORP 12V⁺ —
Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray

SP·BOS
Compare
Compare
BF
234
K %
18.8%
BB %
6.8%
xwOBA
.333
PTS
133
PPG
12.09
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919103.076003.833.4323.9%6.5%17.4%————20410.73
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
10
90.8
FB Spin
94
2505
Extension
2026
11
11
56.3
7
1
0
0
3.20
3.93
18.8%
6.8%
12.0%
.333
.293
80.5%
48.2%
133
12.09
20253333185.3149004.423.4326.6%5.0%21.6%.308.33069.2%45.1%38011.52
20242828166.3139003.843.0630.1%5.8%24.3%.301.29967.9%44.2%39914.25
20233736202.0109012.812.8124.2%7.3%16.9%.298.29678.0%48.0%46012.43
20222525123.795002.983.2924.0%7.4%16.6%.300.27277.2%44.4%29711.88
20212626135.379004.193.9226.9%8.7%18.2%.280.28072.4%49.0%26010.00
2020111156.053003.702.9630.6%11.1%19.5%.303.29068.3%51.9%13612.36
20193232180.3119002.843.2228.9%9.6%19.3%.287.25679.5%52.6%45614.25
20183124135.3129004.793.9621.1%9.8%11.3%.324.32670.8%52.0%2096.74
20172929170.71013003.593.9622.5%8.4%14.1%.313.26369.4%54.0%31911.00
48
6.47
Results
xwOBA
35
.333
Barrel %
52
8.2
Hard-Hit %
78
35.9
K %
32
18.8
BB %
74
6.8
Chase %
52
31.0
Whiff %
30
20.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
107
≈ 75th pctl
Stuff+
110
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
101
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.1%
39 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.035
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.008 better than avg · 117 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.008
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.021 better than avg · 28 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 428 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
21.7%88.52650+3.4-4.16.4917.5%48.7%26.3%33.3%0.0%0.313
CurveballCU
18.9%80.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE48°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCCUFFSISTCHSL
Usage22%19%19%19%15%7%0%
MPH88.580.091.792.484.986.984.8
RHP Avg89.880.295.094.383.386.986.7
2589
-15.3
-12.5
6.44
26.1%
31.8%
25.8%
24.4%
9.1%
0.502
4-Seam FastballFF
18.6%91.72483+13.6+0.86.4613.3%63.1%29.2%25.0%16.7%0.360
SinkerSI
18.6%92.42381+7.9+12.16.557.4%50.8%21.5%9.4%19.0%0.409
SweeperST
15.1%84.92648-4.0-15.66.4528.0%24.5%15.1%35.0%11.6%0.334
ChangeupCH
6.9%86.91724+4.8+14.46.5525.0%37.5%33.3%26.7%0.0%0.185
SliderSL
0.3%84.82696+9.0-4.86.400.0%100.0%0.0%———

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 19″FC · 21″CH · 20″CU · 24″ST · 26″SL · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″SI · 32″FC · 40″CH · 46″CU · 64″ST · 51″SL · 51″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.14′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCCUFFSISTCHSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCCUFFSISTCHSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCCUFFSISTCHSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.