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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B·PIT
Compare
Compare
PA
411
H
99
HR
11
AVG
.272
xwOBA
.330
PPG
2.19
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202661235.286.394.459.173.33312.3%14.0%-1.7%811502.46—
2025108411.272
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

411 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
45
.330
xBA
57
.258
.354
.434
.162
.330
17.8%
10.7%
7.1%
11
0
237
2.19
—
202499382.264.360.432.168.34318.3%11.0%7.3%1202072.09—
20231644.256.341.385.129.29327.3%9.1%18.2%10231.44—
xSLG
33
.415
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
15
87.4
Median EV
13
90.1
90th % EV
15
102.5
Barrel %
34
8.2
Hard-Hit %
17
36.0
Sweet-Spot %
89
40.1
Bat Speed
Avg
7
66.5
Median
6
67.8
90th %
9
73.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
77
23.3
Whiff %
85
16.3
K %
70
17.8
BB %
74
10.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
107
≈ 76th pctl
Chase cost
-25.6r
244 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.0r
237 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.3%
1,697 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.27
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
44+0%9+0%10+11%9+0%9+0%7+36%14+19%16+17%24+2%54-3%32+4%28+0%10+41%22+7%44-22%64-21%67-37%54+26%35+0%10+53%19+4%50-35%48-15%62-29%49+28%29+7%14+0%10+22%23+17%24+8%25+13%24+13%82125231CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000