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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #17 of 41

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Spencer Horwitz
Spencer Horwitz · #17
V⁻ -12VORP 10V⁺ 27
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B·PIT
Compare
Compare
PA
295
H
69
HR
10
AVG
.280
xwOBA
.339
PPG
2.53
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj79343.263.355.412.149.34516.6%11.7%5.0%911892.39—
202674295.280
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

295 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
55
.339
xBA
24
.236
.392
.455
.175
.339
13.6%
13.6%
0.0%
10
1
187
2.53
—
2025108411.272.354.434.162.33017.8%10.7%7.1%1102372.19—
202499382.264.360.432.168.34318.3%11.0%7.3%1202072.09—
20231644.256.341.385.129.29327.3%9.1%18.2%10231.44—
xSLG
37
.393
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
18
86.9
Median EV
12
88.4
90th % EV
4
99.2
Barrel %
48
8.6
Hard-Hit %
18
34.3
Sweet-Spot %
9
31.0
Bat Speed
Avg
15
67.4
Median
4
66.0
90th %
9
72.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
84
24.2
Whiff %
93
13.7
K %
90
13.6
BB %
88
13.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
86
≈ 8th pctl
Chase cost
-5.4r
44 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.1r
56 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
39.0%
272 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.11
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
4511212+13%8-14%7+14%7+22%9+27%112+57%7+0%9-64%22-31%16-27%1143+45%11-41%17-62%13-38%13-16%19+57%71543424211111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 272