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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Taijuan Walker

Taijuan Walker

SP / RP·LAA
Compare
Compare
BF
115
K %
14.8%
BB %
9.6%
xwOBA
.411
PTS
-23
PPG
-4.60
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj14222.012005.045.0116.1%8.5%7.6%————201.44
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

115 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
6
89.8
FB Spin
15
2144
2026
5
4
22.7
1
4
0
0
9.13
7.78
14.8%
9.6%
5.2%
.411
.359
62.5%
39.5%
-23
-4.60
20253622128.358124.285.0116.0%7.8%8.2%.331.29576.6%44.8%1604.44
2024201686.338007.617.2915.2%9.7%5.5%.398.31768.3%37.5%-5-0.25
20233333179.7167004.514.3418.7%9.6%9.1%.324.28070.7%45.3%3129.45
20223232164.3126003.673.7520.3%6.9%13.4%.315.28574.9%46.1%32510.16
20213230165.0711004.474.5922.3%8.4%13.9%.328.24869.7%43.2%2678.34
2020111153.343002.704.4722.2%8.4%13.8%.340.24378.5%38.2%12111.00
2019111.000000.001.1025.0%0.0%25.0%.324.333100.0%33.3%33.00
20185523.701003.423.4416.1%8.9%7.2%.386.34279.5%45.2%336.60
20173232172.71011003.754.0221.4%8.9%12.5%.318.29971.2%50.1%2959.22
Extension
10
5.97
Results
xwOBA
1
.411
Barrel %
5
12.8
Hard-Hit %
78
36.0
K %
7
14.8
BB %
25
9.6
Chase %
9
26.0
Whiff %
0
13.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
100
≈ 50th pctl
Stuff+
97
if they swing
Command+
101
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.3%
37 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.043
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.000 worse than avg · 108 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.026
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.003 better than avg · 28 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 359 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
Split-FingerFS
25.0%86.81395+4.1+11.86.0519.6%41.1%16.7%35.8%17.2%0.376
SinkerSI
22.8%91.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE44°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FSSIFCCUFFSL
Usage25%23%20%13%10%9%
MPH86.891.986.774.392.081.2
RHP Avg86.794.389.880.295.086.7
1968
+12.7
+15.4
6.07
7.4%
50.0%
28.0%
17.1%
14.8%
0.386
CutterFC
19.7%86.72412+11.8-3.15.9317.6%50.7%26.8%25.7%18.2%0.519
CurveballCU
12.8%74.32311-9.2-5.85.7814.3%43.5%26.1%30.8%21.4%0.260
4-Seam FastballFF
10.3%92.02124+16.9+8.56.050.0%43.2%18.9%9.5%7.1%0.674
SliderSL
9.4%81.22391+4.0-7.15.8211.1%35.3%20.6%40.9%7.7%0.262

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″FC · 22″SI · 22″SL · 25″CU · 24″FS · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 33″FC · 44″SI · 33″SL · 59″CU · 75″FS · 44″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.61′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FSSIFCCUFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FSSIFCCUFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FSSIFCCUFFSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.