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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #4 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal · #4
V⁻ —VORP 124V⁺ —
Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal

SP·DET
Compare
Compare
BF
166
K %
27.1%
BB %
3.6%
xwOBA
.284
PTS
113
PPG
16.14
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj151595.072002.712.5429.7%5.2%24.5%————27118.06
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

166 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
88
96.5
FB Spin
57
2284
2026
7
7
43.3
3
2
0
0
2.70
2.11
27.1%
3.6%
23.5%
.284
.295
71.4%
48.2%
113
16.14
20253636223.0156002.222.3132.1%4.4%27.7%.258.27280.8%41.6%70319.53
20243635217.0195002.362.4130.2%4.6%25.6%.258.26879.7%46.4%66418.44
2023151580.373002.801.8432.9%4.5%28.4%.239.28967.7%51.8%24116.07
20222525131.388003.292.7124.5%6.7%17.8%.289.30869.8%47.1%28411.36
20213331158.3812004.265.0325.8%7.4%18.4%.355.27981.9%39.3%2738.27
20208732.014005.635.6627.6%8.2%19.4%.324.25370.4%28.6%394.88
Extension
32
6.33
Results
xwOBA
86
.284
Barrel %
91
5.3
Hard-Hit %
28
43.0
K %
87
27.1
BB %
100
3.6
Chase %
92
35.1
Whiff %
85
27.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
129
≈ 99th pctl
Stuff+
109
if they swing
Command+
115
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
123
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
3.6%
15 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.026
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.016 better than avg · 132 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.012
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.018 better than avg · 22 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 421 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
41.2%96.82346+17.7+3.46.3611.8%60.0%26.9%29.3%16.2%0.385
ChangeupCH
25.3%86.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE47°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSISLCU
Usage41%25%16%15%3%
MPH96.886.996.889.580.2
LHP Avg93.284.693.084.779.0
1824
+5.1
+13.6
6.20
48.0%
32.6%
32.6%
45.0%
28.9%
0.256
SinkerSI
15.6%96.82220+12.4+13.96.354.2%65.5%25.5%15.8%16.7%0.364
SliderSL
14.8%89.52263+3.9-3.56.3739.1%40.4%34.6%35.5%26.7%0.146
CurveballCU
3.1%80.22538-7.3-9.56.2325.0%45.5%27.3%16.7%0.0%0.285

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″CH · 23″SL · 25″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 23″SI · 23″CH · 46″SL · 39″CU · 63″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.31′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSISLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSISLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSISLCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.