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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Thairo Estrada

Thairo Estrada

2B·FA
Compare
Compare
PA
530
H
134
HR
14
AVG
.271
xwOBA
.296
PPG
2.11
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202540165.253.290.370.117.26415.8%3.6%12.2%32771.93—
2024101382.216
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
6
.296
xBA
29
.245
xSLG
.247
.342
.126
.265
19.9%
2.6%
17.3%
9
2
160
1.58
—
2023123530.271.316.416.145.29622.6%4.2%18.4%14232592.11—
2022146543.259.324.398.139.30216.4%6.1%10.3%14243322.27—
202152132.273.333.479.206.31917.4%6.8%10.6%721082.08—
20202452.167.231.229.062.24936.5%1.9%34.6%11110.46—
20192969.250.294.438.188.30121.7%4.3%17.4%33411.41—
9
.371
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
2
84.9
Median EV
9
89.2
90th % EV
15
102.9
Barrel %
10
4.8
Hard-Hit %
11
33.7
Sweet-Spot %
59
37.1
Bat Speed
Avg
16
67.8
Median
17
69.5
90th %
28
75.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
8
37.6
Whiff %
59
20.4
K %
34
22.6
BB %
2
4.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
88
≈ 12th pctl
Chase cost
-42.9r
411 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-14.0r
266 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.4%
1,920 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.96
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
224234+20%10+48%21+36%14+28%32+36%14+86%71+53%19-18%57-30%56-25%51-13%45+76%25+40%10+35%37+13%45-18%66-25%52-20%50+33%18+22%9+25%28+45%44+17%47+8%37+20%20+10%10+17%6+13%16+12%17+46%13+50%8+14%721CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000