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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Thairo Estrada

Thairo Estrada

2B·FA
Compare
Compare
PA
382
H
79
HR
9
AVG
.216
xwOBA
.265
PPG
1.58
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202540165.253.290.370.117.26415.8%3.6%12.2%32771.93—
2024101382.216
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

382 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.265
xBA
6
.222
.247
.342
.126
.265
19.9%
2.6%
17.3%
9
2
160
1.58
—
2023123530.271.316.416.145.29622.6%4.2%18.4%14232592.11—
2022146543.259.324.398.139.30216.4%6.1%10.3%14243322.27—
202152132.273.333.479.206.31917.4%6.8%10.6%721082.08—
20202452.167.231.229.062.24936.5%1.9%34.6%11110.46—
20192969.250.294.438.188.30121.7%4.3%17.4%33411.41—
xSLG
4
.344
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
7
85.9
Median EV
5
88.5
90th % EV
22
103.0
Barrel %
13
4.8
Hard-Hit %
10
31.7
Sweet-Spot %
16
32.4
Bat Speed
Avg
28
68.9
Median
26
70.4
90th %
35
75.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
10
35.0
Whiff %
68
19.5
K %
55
19.9
BB %
0
2.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
90
≈ 17th pctl
Chase cost
-27.4r
268 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.1r
201 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.4%
1,324 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.84
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2544543+33%15+5%20+19%31+67%12+63%8+14%7+36%14-9%34-25%40-33%69-18%38+58%12+30%10+33%30+12%57-32%59-21%73-25%56+54%24+57%7+40%30+36%42+12%51+18%34+19%27+43%143+5%20+8%13+29%17+30%10451CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000