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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #164 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-100-500+50+100+150Tomoyuki Sugano
Tomoyuki Sugano · #60
V⁻ —VORP -111V⁺ —
Tomoyuki Sugano

Tomoyuki Sugano

SP·COL
Compare
Compare
BF
265
K %
13.6%
BB %
6.8%
xwOBA
.412
PTS
104
PPG
8.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj191998.059005.574.9713.7%5.9%7.8%————683.56
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
20
91.5
FB Spin
81
2385
Extension
2026
13
13
68.3
6
4
0
0
4.08
5.21
13.6%
6.8%
6.8%
.412
.262
80.6%
38.8%
104
8.00
20253131161.71011004.795.3315.7%5.3%10.4%.367.28776.1%40.8%2016.48
23
6.20
Results
xwOBA
1
.412
Barrel %
1
16.3
Hard-Hit %
8
46.4
K %
1
13.6
BB %
74
6.8
Chase %
5
24.9
Whiff %
4
15.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 66th pctl
Stuff+
106
if they swing
Command+
100
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
101
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.2%
49 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.050
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.008 worse than avg · 120 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.021
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.050 better than avg · 18 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 437 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
26.7%92.52447+15.5+5.36.1623.7%53.5%27.9%17.5%20.7%0.390
Split-FingerFS
23.0%87.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE41°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFSFCSLSICUST
Usage27%23%16%13%11%6%5%
MPH92.587.488.984.792.379.783.7
RHP Avg95.086.789.886.794.380.283.3
1802
+6.5
+11.9
6.25
29.7%
32.4%
18.9%
32.0%
17.4%
0.354
CutterFC
15.5%88.92530+6.4-1.16.1525.0%56.0%28.0%40.9%25.0%0.477
SliderSL
13.0%84.72620-2.0-4.06.1419.0%38.1%14.3%26.9%18.8%0.620
SinkerSI
10.6%92.32331+11.9+12.86.220.0%61.8%14.7%15.4%0.0%0.471
CurveballCU
6.2%79.72677-9.5-7.56.0814.3%50.0%30.0%20.0%0.0%0.186
SweeperST
5.0%83.72664+3.9-10.96.270.0%31.3%18.8%18.2%0.0%0.027

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″SI · 22″FC · 24″ST · 25″FS · 25″SL · 27″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 31″SI · 32″FC · 39″ST · 54″FS · 44″SL · 48″CU · 62″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.19′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFSFCSLSICUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFSFCSLSICUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFSFCSLSICUST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.