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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #89 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Trevor Larnach
Trevor Larnach · #60
V⁻ -27VORP 5V⁺ 6
Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach

OF·MIN
Compare
Compare
PA
191
H
42
HR
3
AVG
.258
xwOBA
.322
PPG
1.84
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj62267.247.333.402.154.33022.4%10.9%11.5%821282.07—
202655191.258
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

191 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
36
.322
xBA
24
.236
.366
.387
.129
.322
19.9%
13.6%
6.3%
3
2
101
1.84
—
2025145567.250.327.404.154.31821.5%9.3%12.2%1742721.88—
2024112401.258.338.433.175.34522.2%10.0%12.2%1542231.99—
202363212.213.314.415.202.32734.0%12.7%21.3%811171.86—
202258181.230.307.404.174.33131.5%9.9%21.6%50851.47—
202186301.223.324.350.127.30834.6%10.3%24.3%71981.14—
xSLG
11
.346
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
17
86.3
Median EV
8
87.7
90th % EV
40
104.2
Barrel %
22
5.6
Hard-Hit %
7
29.0
Sweet-Spot %
83
39.5
Bat Speed
Avg
34
69.0
Median
26
70.0
90th %
38
75.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
51
29.3
Whiff %
24
26.3
K %
51
19.9
BB %
82
13.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
99
≈ 48th pctl
Chase cost
-3.5r
38 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.1r
42 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
35.3%
221 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.55
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
342413+44%9+14%7+14%7+14%7315-18%11-46%13-56%9-29%751+14%7-9%11-40%15-50%10-44%9+56%935+33%6353211211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 221