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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #62 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Trevor McDonald
Trevor McDonald · #60
V⁻ —VORP 2V⁺ —
Trevor McDonald

Trevor McDonald

SP·SFG
Compare
Compare
BF
165
K %
22.4%
BB %
7.3%
xwOBA
.303
PTS
67
PPG
9.57
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj201173.045004.103.9718.2%8.4%9.8%————1055.27
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

165 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
53
93.9
FB Spin
53
2279
2026
7
7
39.0
2
3
0
0
4.15
3.51
22.4%
7.3%
15.1%
.303
.287
68.4%
61.3%
67
9.57
20253215.010001.802.5023.3%3.3%20.0%.281.27966.2%54.5%4314.33
2024103.000000.003.4310.0%10.0%0.0%.204.000100.0%87.5%99.00
Extension
72
6.67
Results
xwOBA
74
.303
Barrel %
98
3.6
Hard-Hit %
46
40.5
K %
54
22.4
BB %
63
7.3
Chase %
42
29.9
Whiff %
79
25.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
96
≈ 33th pctl
Stuff+
116
if they swing
Command+
84
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
107
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.1%
3 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.059
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.017 worse than avg · 9 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.065
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.094 better than avg · 2 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 27 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.