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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #105 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers · #60
V⁻ —VORP -24V⁺ —
Trevor Rogers

Trevor Rogers

SP·BAL
Compare
Compare
BF
243
K %
16.9%
BB %
7.8%
xwOBA
.328
PTS
38
PPG
3.17
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181890.056004.294.1119.4%7.9%11.5%————1357.52
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
16
91.3
FB Spin
79
2374
Extension
2026
12
12
60.0
3
6
0
0
6.15
4.63
16.9%
7.8%
9.1%
.328
.313
60.7%
37.0%
38
3.17
20251818109.793001.812.7824.3%6.9%17.4%.288.22684.2%46.4%32418.00
20242525124.3211004.924.4517.3%10.0%7.3%.351.32269.8%46.7%933.72
20235523.012003.133.5324.1%7.6%16.5%.308.26276.3%52.9%459.00
20222625118.0511005.344.2422.2%9.4%12.8%.342.32567.0%43.0%1264.85
20212827144.788002.552.4228.5%8.4%20.1%.287.29474.3%41.6%36513.04
20208729.712006.374.1430.0%10.0%20.0%.289.39764.4%46.1%334.13
72
6.67
Results
xwOBA
42
.328
Barrel %
64
7.2
Hard-Hit %
60
38.7
K %
19
16.9
BB %
55
7.8
Chase %
81
33.3
Whiff %
37
20.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 64th pctl
Stuff+
95
if they swing
Command+
103
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
98
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.5%
48 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.000 worse than avg · 139 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.004
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.025 better than avg · 25 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 458 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
44.3%92.72445+15.7+9.56.5620.5%46.4%28.0%32.2%14.3%0.289
ChangeupCH
21.9%86.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE22°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHFCSISTCU
Usage44%22%12%11%9%2%
MPH92.786.681.492.377.877.5
LHP Avg93.284.688.193.081.079.0
1443
+1.2
+12.1
6.79
22.9%
37.3%
19.3%
44.2%
18.2%
0.279
CutterFC
11.9%81.42160+2.5-5.06.6250.0%44.4%44.4%24.0%0.0%0.549
SinkerSI
10.8%92.32321+8.5+16.76.6811.8%48.8%19.5%14.3%12.5%0.182
SweeperST
8.7%77.82051+4.4-10.66.5938.9%36.4%27.3%38.1%20.0%0.166
CurveballCU
2.4%77.52045+4.9-9.26.7250.0%55.6%44.4%75.0%60.0%0.023

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″CU · 22″SI · 21″ST · 23″FC · 23″CH · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″CU · 68″SI · 31″ST · 67″FC · 57″CH · 44″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.22′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHFCSISTCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHFCSISTCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHFCSISTCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.