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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #41 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Trevor Story
Trevor Story · #41
V⁻ -12VORP -12V⁺ 4
Trevor Story

Trevor Story

SS·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
176
H
34
HR
3
AVG
.206
xwOBA
.248
PPG
1.00
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj50218.240.291.395.154.30527.8%6.1%21.8%77901.81—
202641176.206
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

176 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.248
xBA
4
.212
.247
.303
.097
.248
32.4%
4.5%
27.9%
3
4
41
1.00
—
2025162655.263.308.432.169.31226.9%5.0%21.9%25323552.19—
202431106.255.340.394.139.26831.1%10.4%20.7%27571.84—
202341168.203.250.316.113.26532.7%5.4%27.3%310411.00—
202299396.238.306.434.196.31230.8%8.1%22.7%16131992.01—
2021149596.250.332.471.221.33723.3%8.9%14.4%24203592.41—
202061260.288.354.517.229.33724.2%9.2%15.0%11151702.79—
2019151659.293.363.552.259.34126.4%8.8%17.6%35234372.89—
2018168659.290.348.564.274.36025.5%7.1%18.4%37284532.70—
2017155557.238.308.455.217.30334.3%8.8%25.5%2492691.74—
xSLG
3
.308
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
32
88.3
Median EV
44
92.1
90th % EV
31
103.4
Barrel %
12
3.6
Hard-Hit %
46
41.8
Sweet-Spot %
16
31.8
Bat Speed
Avg
36
69.3
Median
26
70.1
90th %
35
75.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
1
43.8
Whiff %
18
28.2
K %
3
32.4
BB %
6
4.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
79
≈ 2th pctl
Chase cost
-9.8r
96 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.2r
49 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
55.1%
354 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.39
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
41123+29%75+13%825-27%11-10%10-24%21-15%13+90%104+60%10+9%22-33%15-38%29-12%17+42%125+25%8+57%14-5%19+46%24+13%845+38%84111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 354