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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Trey Gibson

Trey Gibson

SP·BAL
Compare
Compare
BF
74
K %
6.8%
BB %
10.8%
xwOBA
.416
PTS
14
PPG
3.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj12220.011004.484.1719.6%9.5%10.2%————292.40
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

74 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
49
93.6
FB Spin
16
2147
2026
4
3
17.0
1
1
0
0
4.24
5.45
6.8%
10.8%
-4.0%
.416
.271
77.6%
52.5%
14
3.50
Extension
92
6.93
Results
xwOBA
0
.416
Barrel %
10
11.5
Hard-Hit %
17
44.3
K %
0
6.8
BB %
13
10.8
Chase %
54
31.2
Whiff %
0
14.0