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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

-500+50+100
Trey Mancini

Trey Mancini

1B·LAA
Compare
Compare
PA
4
H
3
HR
0
AVG
.750
xwOBA
.423
PPG
2.50
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj14.238.272.300.062.25825.8%4.0%21.9%0011.04—
202624.750
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

4 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
98
.423
xBA
100
.455
.750
.750
.000
.423
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0
0
5
2.50
—
202384265.232.300.333.101.27929.4%7.9%21.5%40871.04—
2022161589.238.320.390.152.33722.9%9.0%13.9%1802481.54—
2021154618.254.326.430.176.34423.1%8.3%14.8%2103142.04—
2019159680.290.366.534.244.36421.0%9.3%11.7%3514592.89—
2018159637.242.301.415.173.33024.0%6.9%17.1%2402771.74—
2017156588.292.339.486.194.34023.6%5.6%18.0%2413262.09—
2016715.357.4001.071.714.61426.7%0.0%26.7%30233.29—
xSLG
87
.517
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
100
97.8
Median EV
0
—
90th % EV
0
—
Barrel %
0
0.0
Hard-Hit %
100
75.0
Sweet-Spot %
0
0.0
Bat Speed
Avg
95
75.0
Median
0
—
90th %
0
—
Plate Discipline
Chase %
27
33.3
Whiff %
76
16.7
K %
100
0.0
BB %
0
0.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
100
≈ 49th pctl
Chase cost
-0.4r
5 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.4r
3 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.0%
30 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.54
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
132112-50%621112122CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 30