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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #395 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Tyler Alexander
Tyler Alexander · #60
V⁻ —VORP -61V⁺ —
Tyler Alexander

Tyler Alexander

SP / RP·TEX
Compare
Compare
BF
123
K %
17.9%
BB %
7.3%
xwOBA
.285
PTS
69
PPG
2.38
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj43359.0451104.524.3718.5%6.8%11.7%————1072.50
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

123 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
4
89.6
FB Spin
38
2226
2026
29
1
28.0
1
1
2
6
3.21
3.53
17.9%
7.3%
10.6%
.285
.330
75.9%
54.4%
69
2.38
202553599.7514154.883.5719.3%7.1%12.2%.339.32561.5%35.7%1051.98
2024239107.765005.105.0119.8%5.3%14.5%.336.27873.0%32.1%1627.04
202327248.331024.103.7024.3%2.8%21.5%.300.28266.2%33.3%1134.19
20223020109.7411014.514.7714.3%5.8%8.5%.358.26870.3%37.4%1173.90
20214515112.334133.774.4319.3%6.2%13.1%.320.28380.1%38.6%2004.44
202015238.323003.995.3722.4%5.9%16.5%.334.30789.4%45.7%634.20
201913853.714004.864.0320.0%3.0%17.0%.324.34773.0%37.4%604.62
Extension
28
6.27
Results
xwOBA
87
.285
Barrel %
99
3.3
Hard-Hit %
97
31.1
K %
26
17.9
BB %
63
7.3
Chase %
41
29.7
Whiff %
4
16.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
101
≈ 53th pctl
Stuff+
100
if they swing
Command+
103
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
96
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.0%
17 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.002 worse than avg · 57 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.020
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.009 better than avg · 10 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 189 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
27.7%87.22351+10.2-0.66.210.0%55.1%32.7%4.5%0.0%0.312
SinkerSI
26.6%90.72110

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCSICHSTFF
Usage28%27%25%13%8%
MPH87.290.783.979.690.8
LHP Avg88.193.084.681.093.2
+10.0
+17.4
6.23
12.5%
53.2%
21.3%
27.3%
25.0%
0.287
ChangeupCH
24.9%83.91507+2.4+14.56.2424.0%29.5%18.2%41.9%18.2%0.241
SweeperST
13.0%79.62497+3.5-13.36.230.0%60.9%34.8%22.2%0.0%0.242
4-Seam FastballFF
7.9%90.82241+15.9+10.26.1640.0%50.0%35.7%14.3%22.2%0.017

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″FC · 20″SI · 18″ST · 22″CH · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 34″FC · 42″SI · 36″ST · 63″CH · 52″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.15′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCSICHSTFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCSICHSTFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCSICHSTFF

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.