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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #26 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Tyler Glasnow
Tyler Glasnow · #26
V⁻ —VORP 52V⁺ —
Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow

SP·LAD
Compare
Compare
BF
148
K %
33.1%
BB %
8.8%
xwOBA
.255
PTS
126
PPG
18.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj141470.042003.513.3628.7%9.0%19.6%————16711.92
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

148 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
79
95.5
FB Spin
96
2513
2026
7
7
39.7
3
0
0
0
2.72
3.25
33.1%
8.8%
24.3%
.255
.185
80.8%
45.3%
126
18.00
20252522116.743112.853.5329.0%11.7%17.3%.288.23379.7%44.4%30012.00
20242222134.096003.492.8332.0%6.7%25.3%.261.25369.8%48.3%35416.09
20232222125.0108003.602.7633.4%7.6%25.8%.295.30069.5%50.9%31414.27
20223311.700000.772.1638.5%7.7%30.8%.398.200106.1%35.7%4013.33
2021151593.062002.522.5736.2%7.9%28.3%.259.25583.6%45.3%29319.53
2020171786.074004.814.4438.2%9.2%29.0%.280.28277.5%40.8%20412.00
2019151571.764002.762.2833.0%6.1%26.9%.231.30476.5%50.0%19513.00
20184611115.327044.293.8129.0%11.3%17.7%.314.29372.3%50.5%2144.65
2017171469.028017.575.9818.2%14.3%3.9%.379.37261.3%43.8%-5-0.29
Extension
99
7.39
Results
xwOBA
97
.255
Barrel %
54
8.1
Hard-Hit %
62
38.4
K %
99
33.1
BB %
37
8.8
Chase %
36
29.4
Whiff %
92
28.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 87th pctl
Stuff+
134
if they swing
Command+
97
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
122
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
3.6%
17 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.041
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.001 better than avg · 155 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.000
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.029 better than avg · 31 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 471 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
36.6%95.22527+15.6+0.37.4811.4%64.3%30.7%32.0%17.6%0.360
CurveballCU
30.0%81.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE57°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCUSISL
Usage37%30%17%16%
MPH95.281.595.789.3
RHP Avg95.080.294.386.7
2845
-15.7
-5.3
7.20
45.8%
31.3%
27.0%
27.8%
26.6%
0.161
SinkerSI
17.5%95.72487+13.8+10.27.4912.5%58.2%38.8%28.6%25.0%0.266
SliderSL
15.9%89.32635+0.3-3.27.3146.4%32.8%32.8%34.1%17.6%0.198

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″SL · 26″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″SI · 24″SL · 38″CU · 58″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.39′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCUSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCUSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCUSISL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.