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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #98 of 166

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle · #60
V⁻ —VORP -21V⁺ —
Tyler Mahle

Tyler Mahle

SP·SFG
Compare
Compare
BF
360
K %
21.4%
BB %
9.2%
xwOBA
.319
PTS
73
PPG
4.56
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj111157.034004.134.0420.0%8.1%11.8%————888.01
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
14
91.3
FB Spin
72
2354
Extension
2026
16
16
83.0
2
9
0
0
5.31
4.51
21.4%
9.2%
12.2%
.319
.315
69.1%
43.1%
73
4.56
2025171789.764002.313.3119.0%8.4%10.6%.319.26683.3%38.6%19811.65
20243312.701004.973.7317.9%7.1%10.8%.313.32568.2%43.9%113.67
20237734.313003.413.6227.5%4.9%22.6%.280.27273.3%37.7%649.14
20222626130.378004.353.7325.0%8.5%16.5%.302.28769.9%36.4%2379.12
20213434183.7137003.923.9227.7%8.4%19.3%.299.29377.3%44.0%40711.97
202010947.722003.593.7929.9%10.4%19.5%.283.25575.1%30.2%11011.00
20192626134.0313005.174.4723.2%6.1%17.1%.313.30866.0%47.8%1535.88
20182525121.0710005.215.2021.7%10.5%11.2%.344.32673.9%40.9%1325.28
20175525.012002.523.6615.2%12.0%3.2%.326.32583.3%55.6%357.00
65
6.63
Results
xwOBA
48
.319
Barrel %
59
7.3
Hard-Hit %
76
35.9
K %
47
21.4
BB %
26
9.2
Chase %
23
28.6
Whiff %
23
19.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
110
≈ 84th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
115
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
6.8%
24 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.003 better than avg · 98 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.009
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.020 better than avg · 29 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 354 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
44.4%92.42320+17.7+11.46.7618.0%52.9%34.4%13.5%25.0%0.523
Split-FingerFS
28.0%85.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE42°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFSFCSLSI
Usage44%28%13%10%5%
MPH92.485.388.184.191.9
RHP Avg95.086.789.886.794.3
1639
+5.0
+13.3
6.62
32.2%
28.3%
23.2%
46.5%
22.2%
0.302
CutterFC
12.7%88.12440+10.4+2.16.710.0%48.9%28.9%13.0%0.0%0.376
SliderSL
10.2%84.12477+2.2-5.86.6223.1%22.2%13.9%25.0%16.7%0.387
SinkerSI
4.8%91.92294+14.3+11.86.8214.3%52.9%29.4%25.0%0.0%0.259

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″SI · 15″FC · 21″FS · 22″SL · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″SI · 33″FC · 41″FS · 45″SL · 50″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.96′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFSFCSLSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFSFCSLSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFSFCSLSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.