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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Tyler Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson

C·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
518
H
113
HR
13
AVG
.242
xwOBA
.316
PPG
1.49
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202652187.204.303.340.136.32825.7%12.3%13.4%50641.23—
202590342.231
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

518 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
18
.316
xBA
19
.239
.320
.421
.190
.315
33.9%
10.8%
23.1%
13
0
139
1.54
—
2024139516.258.339.443.185.32822.7%9.3%13.4%1912771.99—
2023140518.242.317.378.136.31626.1%9.1%17.0%1302091.49—
202257183.319.376.482.163.31725.7%6.6%19.1%611352.37—
2021137404.284.368.429.145.32718.6%10.1%8.5%1002261.65—
2020820.294.400.647.353.32245.0%10.0%35.0%20151.88—
xSLG
22
.400
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
44
89.4
Median EV
58
92.8
90th % EV
21
103.6
Barrel %
37
7.6
Hard-Hit %
62
43.5
Sweet-Spot %
42
35.3
Bat Speed
Avg
26
68.9
Median
27
70.1
90th %
14
73.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
74
24.1
Whiff %
27
25.8
K %
16
26.1
BB %
50
9.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
101
≈ 55th pctl
Chase cost
-31.4r
291 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-19.6r
344 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.5%
2,050 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.49
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
51+17%6+17%6+25%8535+27%15+11%38+21%24+41%17+25%16+0%7+19%26-30%47-37%65-19%58-2%57+54%28+0%8+25%28-16%45-32%71-26%65-16%44+22%18+14%7+23%13+26%31+17%41-8%38+20%20+27%111+0%7+0%13+14%7+18%11+0%621CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000