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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Tyler Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson

C·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
342
H
69
HR
13
AVG
.231
xwOBA
.315
PPG
1.54
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202652187.204.303.340.136.32825.7%12.3%13.4%50641.23—
202590342.231
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

342 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
21
.315
xBA
3
.219
.320
.421
.190
.315
33.9%
10.8%
23.1%
13
0
139
1.54
—
2024139516.258.339.443.185.32822.7%9.3%13.4%1912771.99—
2023140518.242.317.378.136.31626.1%9.1%17.0%1302091.49—
202257183.319.376.482.163.31725.7%6.6%19.1%611352.37—
2021137404.284.368.429.145.32718.6%10.1%8.5%1002261.65—
2020820.294.400.647.353.32245.0%10.0%35.0%20151.88—
xSLG
34
.417
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
58
90.5
Median EV
81
94.8
90th % EV
27
104.1
Barrel %
85
14.4
Hard-Hit %
82
49.2
Sweet-Spot %
99
42.8
Bat Speed
Avg
17
67.9
Median
19
69.8
90th %
9
73.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
64
25.2
Whiff %
20
27.1
K %
0
33.9
BB %
74
10.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 38th pctl
Chase cost
-21.8r
224 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-15.1r
233 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.7%
1,403 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.63
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3+17%6+0%62+14%73+30%10+0%13+8%24+39%23+33%18+14%144+14%21-36%42-26%61-31%59-10%52+57%28+33%12+29%21-34%47-39%66-33%63-7%46+65%26+0%10+25%16+14%42+6%49+8%39+31%32+14%144+0%14+7%14+17%12+14%712CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000