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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #22 of 66

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Tyler Stephenson
Tyler Stephenson · #22
V⁻ -30VORP -210V⁺ 13
Tyler Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson

C·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
195
H
35
HR
5
AVG
.207
xwOBA
.325
PPG
1.15
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj69276.234.320.401.167.32427.3%10.4%16.9%911181.72—
202653195.207
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

195 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
39
.325
xBA
11
.220
.306
.337
.130
.325
26.2%
12.3%
13.9%
5
0
61
1.15
—
202590342.231.320.421.190.31533.9%10.8%23.1%1301391.54—
2024139516.258.339.443.185.32822.7%9.3%13.4%1912771.99—
2023140518.242.317.378.136.31626.1%9.1%17.0%1302091.49—
202257183.319.376.482.163.31725.7%6.6%19.1%611352.37—
2021137404.284.368.429.145.32718.6%10.1%8.5%1002261.65—
2020820.294.400.647.353.32245.0%10.0%35.0%20151.88—
xSLG
43
.408
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
73
90.7
Median EV
78
95.0
90th % EV
52
105.4
Barrel %
62
10.9
Hard-Hit %
53
43.7
Sweet-Spot %
89
41.2
Bat Speed
Avg
33
69.2
Median
38
71.0
90th %
25
74.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
92
21.3
Whiff %
37
24.3
K %
19
26.2
BB %
74
12.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
117
≈ 95th pctl
Chase cost
-1.9r
20 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.0r
50 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
39.6%
270 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.83
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
122233+8%1223415-23%13-28%18-21%29-20%1541+30%10-36%11-47%17-26%19-36%11+30%1014-12%8-20%10-29%7-25%812211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 270