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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #187 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Tyler Wells
Tyler Wells · #60
V⁻ —VORP -36V⁺ —
Tyler Wells

Tyler Wells

SP / RP·BAL
Compare
Compare
BF
132
K %
24.2%
BB %
6.1%
xwOBA
.310
PTS
85
PPG
3.40
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj39039.0221104.174.0722.6%6.2%16.4%————962.46
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

132 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
28
92.2
FB Spin
88
2436
2026
25
0
33.0
1
1
0
8
3.55
3.55
24.2%
6.1%
18.1%
.310
.276
66.9%
27.5%
85
3.40
20254421.721002.914.1222.0%2.4%19.6%.297.22489.6%33.9%5513.75
20244319.012004.743.9919.4%4.5%14.9%.411.32268.8%37.3%235.75
20232921127.076113.404.6424.9%7.2%17.7%.306.19582.0%33.0%29910.31
20222727115.077003.994.3717.9%6.6%11.3%.308.24975.3%37.5%2027.48
202146062.033423.773.2829.0%5.4%23.6%.290.22166.0%21.9%1783.87
Extension
22
6.19
Results
xwOBA
65
.310
Barrel %
76
6.6
Hard-Hit %
69
37.4
K %
68
24.2
BB %
83
6.1
Chase %
69
32.1
Whiff %
90
27.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
112
≈ 89th pctl
Stuff+
106
if they swing
Command+
111
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
109
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.9%
12 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 58 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.012
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.018 better than avg · 13 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 205 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
37.5%93.32408+18.8+2.96.2212.9%48.6%25.0%21.6%6.3%0.435
SliderSL
25.5%87.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE53°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCHFCCU
Usage38%26%23%11%3%
MPH93.387.087.490.678.1
RHP Avg95.086.786.989.880.2
2497
+4.6
-5.7
6.19
40.9%
44.9%
34.7%
29.6%
25.0%
0.334
ChangeupCH
22.9%87.42282+14.9+14.76.2833.3%50.0%34.1%36.4%25.0%0.386
CutterFC
10.9%90.62484+12.9-4.66.2036.4%57.1%38.1%33.3%30.0%0.067
CurveballCU
3.1%78.12613-11.5-5.76.130.0%33.3%0.0%0.0%—0.541

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″CH · 23″FC · 24″SL · 27″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″CH · 45″FC · 36″SL · 44″CU · 67″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.68′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCHFCCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCHFCCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCHFCCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.